🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."