🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.